Brian Micklethwait's Blog
In which I continue to seek part time employment as the ruler of the world.Home
michael fallon on Russia unleashes tiger on China
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dodgy geezer on Matt Ridley on how technology leads science and how that means that the state need not fund science
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Michael on Matt Ridley on how technology leads science and how that means that the state need not fund science
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Simon Gibbs on On the rights and wrongs of me posting bits from books (plus a bit about Rule Utilarianism)
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Most recent entries
- To Covent Garden (3): Cat that looks a bit like a dog
- To Covent Garden (2): Rough roofs – smooth roof
- Christmas tree with scaffolding
- Santa’s tired helpers
- To Covent Garden (1): The twisty footbridge
- Trousers keyboard
- Cameras photoing the Wheel (in 2007)
- Was Guy’s Tower a key building in the architectural history of London?
- Photo-drone wars to come
- A link and a photo of a photographer
- Matt Ridley on how technology leads science and how that means that the state need not fund science
- Sign blocked by surveillance camera
- My digital photos on his TV
- ASI Christmas Party photos
- Photoing at the ASI party
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6000 Miles from Civilisation
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Category archive: The internet
As discussed in this earlier posting, here is a chunk of Frisby, from his book Bitcoin: The Future of Money? (pp. 197-201 – the chunk entitled “Beware the hype cycle"). And for the reasons stated in that earlier posting, this posting might rather suddenly disappear, so if you feel inclined to read it, do so now. And then when you have, buy the book and tell me that you have done this in the comments, because this might cheer up any passing authors or publishers:
There is a cycle that a new technology passes through as it goes from conception to widespread adoption. The research company Gartner has dubbed it the ‘hype cycle’. It has five phases: the technology trigger, the peak of inflated expectations, the trough of disappointment, the slope of enlightenment and the plateau of productivity.
In the first phase the new technology is invented. There is research and development and some early investment is found. The first products are brought to market. They are expensive and will need a lot of improvement, but they find some early users. The technology clearly has something special about it and people start getting excited. This is the ‘technology trigger’. The internet in the early 1990s is a good example.
As this excitement grows, we move into the second phase. The media start talking about this amazing new technology. Speculative money piles in. All sorts of new companies spring up to operate in this new sector. Many of them are just chasing hot money and have no real product to offer. They are sometimes fraudulent. This new technology is going to change the world. The possibilities are endless. We’re going to cure diseases. We’re going to solve energy problems. We’re going to build houses on the moon. This is the ‘peak of inflated expectations’. This was the internet in 2000.
But at some point, the needle of reality punctures the bubble of expectation, and we move into the third phase. Actually, this technology might not be quite as good as we thought it was; it’s going to take a lot of work to get it right and to make it succeed on a commercial scale. A great deal of not particularly rewarding hard work, time and investment lies ahead. Forget the ideas men – now we need the water-carriers. Suddenly, the excitement has gone.
Negative press starts to creep in. Now there are more sellers than buyers. Investment is harder to come by. Many companies start going bust. People are losing money. The hype cycle has reversed and we have descended into the ‘trough of disappointment.’ This was the internet between 2000 and 2003.
But now that the hot money has left, we can move into phase four. The incompetent or fraudulent companies have died. The sector has been purged. Most of those that remain are serious players. Investors now demand better practice and the survivors deliver it. They release the second and third generation products, and they work quite well. More and more people start to use the technology and it is finally finding mainstream adoption. This was the internet in 2004. It climbed the ‘Slope of Enlightenment’, the fourth phase of the hype cycle, and entered the ‘Plateau of Productivity’ - phase five - which is where the likes of Google, Amazon and eBay are today.
Of course, cycles like this are arbitrary. Reality is never quite so simple. But it’s easy to make the case that crypto-currencies in late 2013 reached a ‘peak of inflated expectations’.
Perhaps it was not the. It wasn’t Bitcoin’s dotcom 2000 moment – just a peak on a larger journey up. Many Bitcoin companies, for example, are not even listed on the stock market. Greater manias could lie ahead.
But it’s also easy to make the case that it ws the peak of inflated expectations. In the space of three or four years, Bitcoin went from an understated mention on an obscure mailing list to declarations that it was not only going to become the preferred money system of the world, but also the usurper of the existing world order. At $1,000 a coin, some early adopters had made a million times their original investment. Speculators marvelled at the colossal amount of money they were making. The media were crazy for it. Bitcoin was discussed all over television.
It caught the imagination of the left, the right and the in-between. Computer boffins marvelled at the impossibly resilient code. Economists and libertarians marvelled at the politics of a money without government or border. There were early adopters, from the tech savvy to the black markets (black markets are usually quick to embrace new technology - pornography was the first business sector to actually make money on the internet, for example).
Every Tom, Dick and Harry you met under the age of 30 with an interest in IT was involved in some Bircoin start-up or other. Either that or he was designing some new alt currency - some altcoins were rising at over a thousand per cent per day. ‘Banks, governments, they’re irrelevant now,’ these upstarts declared.
I suggest that in late 2013 we hit the peak of the hype cycle - the peak of inflated expectations. Now Bitcoin is somewhere in the ‘trough of disillusionment,’ just like the internet in 2001. The price has fallen. There have been thefts. Some of the companies involved have gone bankrupt.
The challenge now is for all those start-ups to make their product or service work. They have to take Bitcoin from a great idea and a technology that works to something with much wider ‘real world’ use. They have to find investment and get more and more people to start using the coins. This is a long process.
There are many who will disagree with this interpretation. And, with investment, it is dangerous to have rigid opinions – I reserve the right to change my mind as events unfold.
This morning I did a rather negative would-be posting about some Art, Art which had at first rather appealed to me but which, upon further consideration, I decided I did not much like or admire.
But then I realised that my rule for stuff that other people are doing with their own time and money and others are buying and enjoying with their own money and time is for me just to walk away. Why moan? The world is full of stuff I don’t much care for. So long as I don’t get taxed to pay for it, or made to pay attention to it against my will, what on earth is the point of me seeking it out and bitching about it?
For me, this is one of the great benefits that has been brought about by the internet. In the age of the mass media, you had this whole tribe of professional hacks who, day after day, week after week, were made to pay attention to things which quite often they would rather not have been paying attention to. Inevitably, an air of irritation, even hatred, entered the souls and writings of these people. The subtext, and often the text, was: I wouldn’t have picked this in the first place. Only the Culture vultures who really were allowed to pick whatever cultural prey they were inclined to descend upon were able to communicate genuine pleasure, because they were the only Culture vultures who truly felt pleasure. The rest of Culture writing was a mixture of grudging reportage and grumbling, with the occasional cheer when some hack found himself not clock watching, not trying to think of what the hell nice things he could say about something he considered nasty, or worse, just … shrug.
But now a tidal wave of amateurs has crashed into the culture-writing game and it has become, well, a game. It has become fun. We bloggers and twitterers pick on stuff we like, and say: hey, this is cool, this is fun, this is good, this is something I really enjoyed immersing myself in. Maybe you’ll like it too. Commenters and other twitterers then say things like: well, I prefer this, or this, or that or that. If, on the other hand, you said you didn’t like something or other, the response from other www-chatterers is, not unnaturally, just to say: well then why the rude word do you waste your time moaning about it? Walk away. If what you are moaning about is some Big Thing, heavily promoted, made much of, that everyone else seems to be paying attention to, fair enough, you are warning the rest of us off it. But if it is just some little thing you found on the internet and you don’t like it, so rude-word-ing what?
For as long as there was just the one big Culture, that the media people agreed or had to agree was It, then all who wanted to be Cultural had to pay attention to that Culture, whether they liked It or not. It was their duty, just as it was the duty of professional Culture-writers to write about It, to pay attention to It. There was an air of joylessness and obligation about It all, like a queue in a passport office.
Favourite-blogger-of-mine Mick Hartley has written from time to time about the way that Art is now turning into fairground entertainment, often implying that this is a bad thing. I also notice this when I visit London’s South Bank Arts enclave, which now has a much more “visitor attraction” feel to it than it used to have. Hartley does do quite a lot of moaning, but mostly the Cultural stuff he does now is drawing attention to something he likes, thinks deserves to be more noticed, more enjoyed, more celebrated. His posting today is a perfect example of this. It’s not Art, it’s street art. Street art is fun, it appeals to people, and it is also where a lot of the official Art action is now, because the Artists know that these street people are upstaging them.
Political money is now tighter than it was a decade and more ago, and if the Arts fraternity want yet more money, they must try appealing to their audiences rather than baffling them or insulting them. They must now try to give pleasure, the way they tended not to in the twentieth century.
But there is more than economics going on here. After all, there is still a hell of a lot of Official Money being competed for. There is still a great big Culture out there, still being paid for, if not enjoyed. No, the other difference is that there is also that damned internet out there, where regular punters get to say what they really think about it all. If they are being got at by Culture, they can now get back at it, by saying: bollocks, and: I prefer this, or this, or that or that. It’s a different world.
And you’ll never know what it was I just moaning about. I will instead look for other things, that I actually like.
The sort of place I will be looking will be at places like Colossal, which, by the way, is where I found the thing that I liked at first but then didn’t like, that got me started on all this. I don’t like everything at Colossal by any means. But I like a lot of it.
Or, maybe this is really a posting that is not really about Art as such, more about getting old, as so many postings here are. As you get old, you stop worrying about what Art is, if you are one of those people who ever did worry. You just stop paying attention to Art, as in: Where Art Is Going. It will go where it goes, and you go where you want to go. It’s not the world getting happier. It’s not Art getting more fun. It’s just you. It’s just me.
Ah blogging. You can change your mind in mid posting, or even right at the end if you feel inclined. What’s that you say? You disapprove. I must make up my mind. Must I? I tell you what, you go away and read something else, something you’d prefer. This was just a bit of fun, and for you it wasn’t. Forget about it.
See number 4 of these mistranslations. See also, number 2: “RACIST PARK”; number 9: “BAG OF SHIT”; number 16: “Deformity Toilet”; and number 19 (which I have seen before I’m almost sure): “Translate server error”.
Got this via here, of all places, the one he chose being number 6: “Entrance only with Herr Hitler”.
The lion statues in Tragalgar Square are famous, and they deserve to be. But there is another lion statue in London that I am also fond of, namely the one on the far side of Westminster Bridge from the Houses of Parliament. I like, when I walk along beside the river next to St Thomas’ Hospital, to photo it lined up with the Wheel.
I really liked this when I saw it. You wouldn’t want a guide lion, but, that’s the joke.
And this other guy liked it too:
I couldn’t wait for Friday to come round so I could show these snaps to you people. Inconveniently, I took them on a Saturday.
It turns out that with us, cats are cats. Then they go outdoors and become lions. They get on better with us than they do with each other. They have evolved to manipulate us into feeding and sheltering them.
With the arrival of the internet, the evolution of cats has entered a new and more intense phase.
LATER: Although guide lions probably wouldn’t work, here’s a 2012 story about a guide cat, who guides a dog.
SUNDAY: I was back there yesterday, and that bit of yellow writing wasn’t there when I first photoed this guide dog lion:
And they have also sorted out that strap around the lion’s front.
More about what is going on here, here.
While rootling around in the www like it was about 2003, I found this piece, dating from 2009, which was all about this apparently pretty but otherwise unremarkable abstract picture:
In case you don’t already know what is going on here, the big story here is that the blue bits and the green bits are the same colour. What colour your eyes see something as depends on the other colours in the immediate vicinity.
The writer linked to above found this graphic here, which you can too if you do a bit of scrolling down.
If you saw this around 2009, or something similar around 2003, then apologies for the repetition. That early period of blogging, just after 2000, will always seem to me like a fleeting golden age, when everything of this sort was being discovered and passed on for the very first time. Because we could. Before, we couldn’t. Now, we could. But now (as in now), most of this sort of trivia has been in circulation for a decade, and it lacks the impact it once had. We bloggers must find new things to say, to cover for the fact that blogging itself is no longer new. This is not a bad thing.
Taking the first question first: is it practise or practice?
This is the kind of question that, in the days before the www, used to rattle about inside several million heads for decades on end. As it so happens, it did so rattle in mine. But for a decade and more now, such questions could and can be answered, and today I answered this question for myself, by finding my way, very quickly, pretty much as soon as I started trying, to this site. I’d been meaning to do this for a long time. Today, I did. What it says at the other end of that link, assuming I read it right, is that practice is the noun and practise is the verb, as with advice and advise. I know, you knew that. I must be an uneducated pillock not to know it. But, although in many ways not an uneducated pillock, I was for many decades just that, in this particular way. Besides which, the essence of educatedness is not mere knowledge, it is knowing that one needs to acquire this or that further item of further knowledge, and if far later than is dignified, well so be it.
I’m not saying that this answer is correct. I’m just saying that from now on, this is the answer I will try to apply whenever the practice/practise dilemma presents itself to me.
Moving on to the question in the brackets above. Answer: no. The site where I found this answer (right or wrong) is called “Future Perfect”, and its subtitle is “Improving Written Communications”. Like, that’s all it would take to make the future perfect. I do not believe this. I get it. Future perfect is also a piece of grammar, and grammar is (along with spelling) one of the things this place is about. Ho ho. But, future perfect?
Perfect communication could just mean perfectly expressed abuse. Remember that fish in Hitchhiker’s Guide, which enabled everyone to communicate perfectly with everyone else, and which started terrible wars, because now everyone could understood everyone else’s insults. Perfect communication is indeed, maybe, part of the perfect future, but saying perfectly nice things is also an important part of perfection, I would say. And that’s quite aside from the fact that actual perfection would also be terrible, for other reasons.
From early in the afternoon of Tuesday, yesterday, until early this morning, this blog was out of action. I couldn’t read it myself, let alone post anything:
The non-functioning of BrianMicklethwaitDotCom took out my emailing abilities as well. If anyone tried to email and got told to get stuffed, please try again - especially if it concerned the meeting at my home this coming Friday evening, at which Priya Dutta is going to speak about education.
I don’t suppose many people suffered much, but I did, because I didn’t know if and when BMDC was ever going to come back to life.
The problem was something to do with the internet provider (which has recently changed hands) for my Hoster. But spare a thought for Hoster. I wasn’t his only client ringing up in a state. He had lots of others doing the exact same thing. He told me that he will be changing his internet provider asap, but that he couldn’t do that until his internet provider came back on line and he was able to make the necessary arrangements.
Meanwhile, I really need to change how I do email.
More times like these. I have had a great deal too many and too much of these sorts of times lately.
A fun bit of news on the cats front today illustrates how seriously the oh-so-serious Guardian now takes the whole cats thing, along with the rest of the media after a decade and more of cattery on the internet.
A cat-blogger lady called Jackie Smith has done a book of cat pictures, called Cat Walk:
I don’t think Cat Walk is book about cats. It’s about learning to see beauty within arms reach. It’s about hunting for words like a mouse hunts for cats. It’s about walking, but not really covering distance. The same paths are travelled, but each time the light, the season, the thoughts inside make it different. It does have something to do with the character of cats, but also to do with writing, looking, seeing, being in a place.
This man should be told.
My favourite bit is where she says “It’s about hunting for words like a mouse hunts for cats”. Because it’s not enough to hunt down the right words. You have then to arrange them in the right order. I mean, a mouse hunting for cats? That’s some mouse you got there lady.
On the unappealingness of classical music on the internet
On not letting either God or (the other) God do everything
A Sunday ramble
Cats … on scaffolding … with shadows …
New London bridge competition
Why you are wrong
OpenOffice Writer default resetting nightmares
Why aren’t people happier about amazing new stuff?
Surrey doing rather well shock
Last night at my place
I see cats
Hao Ruan and LYCS Architecture are now world famous
Pictures of soon-to-be-built London Big Things
Guardian online is a group blog that trolls its own readers
T20 fun and games
Mysteriously losing my internet connection and then mysteriously getting it back
Amusing cats versus important people
Libeskind doing the saw cut style in Ontario
Classic Feline Friday quote from Tim Berners-Lee
Christopher Seaman on conducting
A new Morrisons is opening in Strutton Ground next Monday
Ashes Lag recovery continues
“In order to comply with Google’s regulations …”
South Bank Architects?
The text of my talk for Christian Michel last night
Tough going in Australia
Simon Gibbs last night at the Rose and Crown
The next four Brian’s Last Fridays (including December 27)
Quotes from there
Amazon pricing puzzle
Billy Fury Way
A fake feline photo and a faltering feline enumerator
Wedding photography (6): The Wedding and the Reception
Alastair James on Blythe Hill Fields and smartphones
Classical CDs from Gramex
Looking along Victoria Street to The Wheel (and on how to be liked (or disliked) by Google)
Michael Jennings on why iPad photoing is not ridiculous
Australia v South Africa starts now
Malta Day procession
Cheese or font?
Talk by Frank Braun about Bitcoin at my home on Aug 3rd
A pill that turns sweat into perfume
Internet connection oddities
Davies and de Bruyn get promotion for Surrey
A review of Detlev Schlichter’s new book (multiplied by 4)
One World Trade Center
WWWhat a great afternoon!!!
More shiny new headquarters buildings
Possible light blogging for the next week
Three videos from the USA that I recently watched
Release Ai Weiwei
Someone doesn’t understand what I mean by roof clutter
Let us now trash infamous men
And then give up and stay fat
And it resumes …
Questions concerning the death of copyright protection on downloaded MP3s
A down and up weekend
Obamanomics dod not work
First blood to Australia
Cat defeats alligators
Is this blog somewhat broken?
Malcolm Hutty on protecting the internet
Greenies make a video saying: “We’re a bunch of vile greenie-nazis!”
Advertising aimed entirely at me
Which just goes to show that stuff gets around
Links to this and that
Expendable movie news
“An alternative definition of intelligence …”
Cricinfo gets its clock in a tangle and Pyrah bowls an unforgivable no ball
Spare A3 paper
England beating Australia – Germany beating England
Curse you Friends Provident t20
Big box computers versus laptops
Nuking the Oil Spill is probably a rather bad idea
Shard sitings and and an agreeably honest rabies prevention sign
I love television
One man’s intellectual theft is another man’s marketing
This is not Mohammed
Everybody draw Mohammed every day!
Brightly lit buildings against a dark sky
Molly Norris was just kidding!
Three cheers for Molly Norris but also a few small grumbles
Everybody draw Mohammed on May 20th!
How my camera and the internet explained an old bus
You know where you are with a book - usually
IPL on ITV4!
Why David Hepworth is wrong about podcasting
Does Google now rule the world of computing?
Me taking pictures in a funny way while it’s still allowed
List of popular misconceptions
BrianMicklethwaitDotCom understatement of the day
Antoine Clarke on the Massachusetts election and the online effect
My local Blockbuster Video just closed
Cricket talk tonight
Old-school media versus (or becoming) new-school media (again)
India looking good against Sri Lanka
ClimateGate roars on and Man(n)-made warming is taking on a whole new meaning
What’s up with this?
Antoine Clarke talks about Facebook and Twitter – Guido and … Ian Geldard?
Under a hundred copies
Rude Ian Morbin should have a blog
Prodicus (and me) on the shitness of the LibDems
Was it Sweeney? And what else were they trying to suppress?
Two Samizdata pieces
God is killing cinemas!
The Instadaughter on the morals of actors
All your Quite Interesting questions answered
When Cricinfo doesn’t supply the info
More recorded cricket chat and some further Oval hindsights
Me and Michael Jennings talk tech trends
England and me both upset
Laptop for emails
Our shortening atten … ooh look!
What a difference a g makes
How technology has improved detention
Thoughts on the Go Gordon petition
Spelling Micklethwait wrong and Googling for Brian Micklethwaite
On Bernstein – and Previn
Register for your free pack and five £1-off-coupons
Multipurpose internet-connected rabbit
The Fixed Quantity of Advertising fallacy and the menace of targetted advertising
What the previous two postings here have in common
Daniel Hannan and the shape of the media to come
Someone called Rick wants me to puke on President Obama
Kevid Dowd video now up and watchable
God moves in mysterious ways
By bus to Sheffield
Google and dongle
Second Class power
You don’t wait for it – you go looking for it
Billion Monkeys liked photoing the nastiest poster!
On autobiographical ruthlessness
P. J. O’Rourke confuses the average with the significant
Pink bunny successfully resized and posted only with Jesus!
Dongling at Michael’s
Not the same thing
Gramophone are putting their back catalogue of articles online for free
Collingwood comes through and The Internet is a hat trick
Never mind the telly
If the Jews have been running the world they haven’t been doing it very successfully
Two adverts in the tube
Mainstream media bloggers and the problem of my blogroll
Seven Napiers – three Ansaris - Gilchrist
Today I have been blogging elsewhere and also doing other things
Cisco – fuck off and die
152 not out in a Twenty20
Ridiculous story but great headline
I really should stop buying newspapers and magazines
Self-guided photo-tour of the streets of San Francisco
Fourth innings heroics
Billion Monkeys like being photoed!
Meltdown in Russia … and New Zealand
She learned to knit her before she learned to spell her
Thank you very much Ambrose and Collingwood
I love the internet
Obama a loser?
On hating and not hating commenters
Lucky I don’t take cricket seriously
Antoine Clarke on the US Primaries – either Obama will beat McCain or McCain will beat Clinton
Michael Jennings on telecoms at Samizdata
More horizontal thinness
The great DVD packaging clearout
Democracy for sale – starting with football and beer
The romance of new technology – or the drudgery of it
Chanelle and Ziggy - romance in the age of total surveillance
It’s the decline of old-school advertising that’s really hurting old-school journalism
Breaking the Left’s stranglehold on the moving image
New word alert
RSS feed news
American war memorial by the sea at St Nazaire
Comment is free and WiFi should be too
“It’s going to be very exciting to see what young people come up with when they reject college”
Ideas and opportunities
Splog is the new splig
A new tower in Manchester
The publicness of private life
Internet problems solved
Is the internet replacing higher education?
How to handle the complaints of your fiercest critics
Irrelevant heart attack adverts
More internet connection problems
Billion Monkeys photo their own demo!
Evite makes sure I remember it
New Moscow road bridge
He likes it - but does he understand it?
Does the internet change education?
That Rooney goal
Micklethwait’s Four Star Theory of the Internet
Screw you Dove – good on you Ruth Kelly – the right to avoid gay adoption
Me on internet telly this evening with Andrew Ian Dodge
Other people’s photos (3): Ice storm
Back to the future with the virtuoso violinists
Screwed by Google – and Google screwed by the kitten-bloggers?
What next for the virtuoso violinists? - Simon Hewitt Jones has some answers
More G&S - and some strange Times errors
Leon Louw talks about the habits of highly effective countries
Hands off the Net
Oscar Wilde defends society
Airship photos loading tri-incidence
Pro-am music video
Everyone likes Magic Andy
A dangerous development
The great Google www dictionary
Thoughts on the Age of Google
An intrusion of green rectangles
Adriana’s Thing mp3
Blogging takes longer than doing things - a picture - and why does a hot bath make me colder?
Bartók outside South Kensington tube
Big Media crap and football cock-ups
Brian and Antoine democracy mp3 number twelve
Attacks of the mad robots and the little red crosses
County cricket - great and not so great - and what to do about that
Wisden on the back foot
Billion Monkeys stop cover-ups!
So does Flintoff really look like Jessop?
The internet is creating new video stars
The Wealth of Networks
Internet sex machines instead of photos
Blue balls – kaleideskopes – etc.
Reading and writing for the www are the same
Quoted but not linked to
The Falkirk Wheel
‘Libertarian’ now beats ‘Marxist’
The problem of long blog postings
iBrian may be coming but I promise nothing
The Million Dollar Homepage
Read-Write versus Read-Only
Talking about my generation
I am not too clever
Happy New Year
Is Africa about to look boring?
Plink plink plink plinkplinkplink plinkplink plink plink plinkplinkplinkplink plinkplinkplink
I actually think that this is quite mindful
Either $150 or free
The stupid internet
Katrina as art – and Katrina as proof of What I’ve Always Said
Blowing Smoke all over old school advertising