Brian Micklethwait's Blog
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Brian Micklethwait on Ashes to ashes
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Michael Jennings on Happiness is Gold Blend at only £3 instead of £4.50
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- Sculpture at St James’s Tube
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- A quota thought that (luckily for me) went nowhere
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6000 Miles from Civilisation
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Category archive: Social Media
I have another last Friday of the Month meeting tomorrow. Patrick Crozier will speak about life in Britain in 1913.
In an email to Patrick, I asked him:
Were they libertarians?
And in the email to all those on my list for these evenings, I included that and other questions, together with Patrick’s responses about what else he’ll be talking aboutt. (If you want to be on that, click where it says “Contact”, top left.)
In response to this email, Antoine Clarke emailed back thus:
I definitely intend to be there. …
Good. And yes Antoine, bring some crisps.
And he continued:
For what it’s worth, my short guess would be: They weren’t libertarians, though they lived in a society that was largely libertarian (perhaps the problem was not getting the importance of [or caring about] the things that kept it libertarian). Assumptions about what the state could and should do were more libertarian.
But racism, at least between Europeans and non-Europeans, was there. It might not be translated into “… therefore they must be destroyed ...” but only weird people would marry blacks.
I think that only started seriously changing half a century later.
Perhaps the most significant impression people had was that life was a lot better than it had been 50 or 100 years ago, in terms of money, quality of life and freedom. And they thought it would probably continue.
I’ll shortly be sending out a reminder email about tomorrow night, containing links to this posting here, and to this Samizdata posting.
I like how, when a topic of discussion is announced, the discussion can now get underway beforehand, and continue afterwards. You do not have to show up at a meeting in order to be influenced by it, one way or another. And nowadays that applies to many more people than to those who do show up.
That’s one of things it says here. But don’t go there. You’d be wasting your time. All that the bit of it that concerns the above says is: “You can achieve everything you want if you’re unambitious enough.”
I get really pissed off with links that say something, and you go there, and all it is is someone saying what you’ve just read already, with no elaboration or justification or illustration or explication or any other sort of ation, of the sort that all links used to take you to. I am sure Twitter has its uses, but I wish people wouldn’t link to it in this annoyingly disappointing way.
My friend Alex Singleton dropped by the other day. He often does, after or between appointments that bring him near to my home. He has a blog, which I recommend, and Alex himself recommends blogging as a good way to spread ideas or sell products. I sort of knew Alex had a blog for a quite a while, but did not really register this fact. I am now digging backwards, and finding things like this, from someone called Harold Burson:
The term communications has become synonymous with PR but this does a disservice to our profession by making it tactical … The best term for what we do is public relations.
I recently read a book where “PR” meant photo reconnaissance throughout. It described a different world entirely from ours, in which misdirected photographic efforts could easily cost your your life. But yes, good to encounter someone who is not ashamed of what he does.
Too few practitioners have even heard of the legendary figures of PR, such as Ivy Lee and Sir Basil Clarke, let alone read about them. But it does mean that those who put the time in to study how PR works – practically, not academically – quickly shine.
That’s Alex himself. There are, throughout his blog, regular references to and quotes from old dead guys, another who is frequently mentioned being David Ogilvy. Why reinvent the wheel? A particular theme of Alex’s thinking is that the new social media don’t render all the wisdoms of the PR and advertising past obsolete.
I like how Alex writes. He prefers short and clear sentences to longer and wafflier ones, clear words to the vaguer words so loved by PR-ists. Everything he writes exudes confidence in his ability to help enterprise do their PR better. Which would explain why he is not afraid to have as his latest posting an admiring piece about Rudolf Flesch. Quote:
Flesch writes: “while we don’t need so many words any more to express our thoughts, the words we do use carry a much heavier load of ideas… as far as ideas are concerned, our sentences are usually much longer and fuller than those people wrote two or three centuries ago”.
The danger, he says, is that “our more heavy-handed writers don’t care much for the modern short sentence either; and so we get prose that consists of overlong sentences packed to the brim with long, overloaded words”.
And that, in a nutshell, is what’s wrong with so much material that comes out of big organisations today.
You don’t put stuff like that up if you fear that your earlier postings will then be scoured by envious rivals, successfully, for great gobs of longwinded nonsense.
Alex, just like all these old dead guys, dresses smartly, as he explains in this posting, i.e. more smartly than he did in this photo of him (by me with me also in it) here. I particularly like that one.
Talking with Alex also helped me to think through an enterprise of my own that I am now contemplating. He supplied some very helpful ideas about how I could do this more easily and effectively.
England sports fans, cricket fans especially, are noted for their pessimism. There is no situation from which an England team cannot snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and you can rely on an England fan to point this out, before during, and even right at the very end, just before (if they do) England win. I believe the Welsh are the same. But pessimism of this sort has its uses.
Yesterday, for instance, I did this posting on Samizdata about how all the proper commentators are saying that England will walk it against Australia in the two forthcoming Ashes series, home and away. Not so fast, I said. England could lose. With sport, you never know.
The result of this posting was that I was happy all of yesterday, no matter what happened. If England got off to a flyer, hurrah. If they did not, hurrah, because: I told you so. England lost early wickets, and later failed to recover. Hurrah, I told you so. Then, England knocked over four top order Aussies. Hurrah. Now, Australia are building a threatening stand. They are over a hundred for four, having earlier been 22-3, with Clarke bowled by an Anderson beauty. Heads I win, tails I win. Hurrah hurrah.
Australia 108-5. Smith snicks at Anderson. Hurrah again.
Now that everyone is able, thanks to all the New Media, to publicise their pessimistic sporting prophecies, this pleasurable effect is now greatly intensified.
Does this sort of thing explain real life pessimism, even real life pessimism on a cosmic scale, of the We Are All Doomed sort? When the world does end, will it end to joyous cries of: I told you so! ?
Australia 113-6! 114-7!! Hurrah!!!
114-8. Fiver for Jimmy A. Okay all this is very good for England, but this is so good it also illustrates that ... with sport you never know! Hurrah hurrah hurrah!!!
LUNCH: Australia 229-9. Last wicket stand of 112 and counting. First innings lead of 14 and counting. Hughes 63 not out. Agar, highest scoring ever test match number 11 debutant: 69 not out.
With sport, you just never know.
LATER: Agar is nearing a century. Already biggest ever score by any test number eleven, never mind a debutant. Amazing.
World record tenth wicket partnership in tests.
Doh! Agar out for 98. Shame.
Really, with sport, you never, never know.
I like scaffolding:
That was all photoed last week, where they are rebuilding Victoria tube station. There is always lots of scaffolding on the go in London. Lovely for a photographer like me, who is obsessed with Mondrianic rectangles, and who likes to notice (as do many other photographers) aesthetic effects created by things not done for any aesthetic purpose.
But I don’t like scaffolding so much when it is right outside my kitchen window, as it now is, for some ludicrously expensive tarting up of the block of flats where I live.
Luckily they do not have a loud radio. I am now playing them a Beethoven piano concerto.
I have been listening out for amusing things said by the scaffolders, in their loud cockney voices. So far the nearest thing to that has been this not very choice piece of dialogue, clearly audible, unlike most of their cockney shoutings:
“I like Jeremy Clarkson.”
“Are you on ‘is Twitter?”
I like Clarkson too, despite not being on his Twitter, until now, if that mere link counts. But I agree, this is not really much. Maybe they’ll improve on this in the days to come.
No. North Korea is not socialism betrayed. It is socialism done.
Which everyone here knows, but it is worth repeating.
Commenting on that, Perry de Havilland said:
That North Korea is ‘late socialism’ is a meme worth spreading.
Indeed it is.
Various people have been nagging me (a bit) about getting into Twitter, which things like this suit well. It reminds me (a bit) of when people got contemptuously angry (a bit) because I still didn’t have an email address.
In particular, the pollsters do not have to know. I think the polls have, all along, been wrong about this election, wronger than ever before. The polls are not being told what people have been, are, and will be thinking. The polls were wrong when they said Obama was walking it. They are wrong now that they are saying it’s close. They will be wrong when they say Romney will just about win, as they soon will. But on the day, in the real poll, Obama is going to be slaughtered. Romney will win all the “battleground” states and several which are not now even thought to be in contention.
What polls tell you is not what the result will be. They tell you what the pollsters think the result will be. How do they know what they know? Same way I do. They guess. (In this respect, poll results remind me of economic models.) Okay that isn’t entirely true. I myself factor in what the polls say when I make my guesses. But the polls are sufficiently wrong to be very wrong indeed, for an event that can be bent into a completely different shape by single figure percentage point errors.
[LATER: Actually, I think I got the first two sentences of the paragraph above wrong. It should read: “What polls tell you is not what voters are thinking. They tell you what the pollsters think the voters are thinking”. What I actually put is indeed “not entirely true”. This explains, I think, and as my original version does not, why pollsters don’t get the result right, but do get right the direction in which opinion is heading at any particular moment, which, as I introspect, I have been letting them tell me about. Because they do get that right. The misleading samples of people that the pollsters each talk to include a few who change their minds, and the pollsters do pick up on this. So, now, the pollsters are getting right that opinion is flowing steadily away from Obama and towards Romney. But at no stage in this process did, or do, or will they register how bad things were, and are, and will be, for Obama. End of LATER.]
We shall see, etc.
Romney’s final burst of adverts will have further impact. Obama’s adverts have accomplished little. They said Romney isn’t likable, is a right wing nutjob, etc. Debate One negated this message. They said something about “Big Bird”. Ridiculous. But that doesn’t prove that adverts accomplish nothing, by their nature. Just as in the debates, and unlike Obama, Romney (and Ryan) have plenty of persuasive things that they want to say.
In a comment on this, I noted that the TV Umpire lady in the Vice President debate did Biden no favours by allowing him to behave so very badly. Had she told him early on to stop his giggling and interrupting, Biden might well have won that debate. But give TV Umpire lady her due, she did at least interrupt Ryan, whenever his speeches were starting to sound too eloquent.
But Romney’s adverts can correct that, by saying everything Team Romney now wants to say, and which the mainstream media have until now stopped them saying by less expensive means. And, they can use the exact words which will work best.
Plus, Team Romney will have, I believe, another two debates worth of Obama waffle to use, like they have already used Biden’s laughing.
Like Jim Bennett said:
John, let me suggest that the criteria for victory are changing. The debate no longer ends when the debaters walk off stage. And now it no longer ends when the TV spinners have, like cuckoos, laid their eggs and flown away. There is now the long, long reverberation in social media, where the basic debate footage serves as raw material for mash-ups and parodies and treatments for the rest of the election cycle and beyond. And Biden’s performance, which won him some tactical advantage in the debate, has set him up as the target for rich satire and a way that Ryan’s conventional performance didn’t and cannot do. His performance is comic gold, and although within hard-core Dem/left circles he will be celebrated as the warrior, everywhere else, and especially for basically apolitical young YouTube viewers, he will be the jackass supreme. I suspect that by Election Day, the various parodic videos will have had a larger viewership than the debate itself. By this criterion, the tactic was a massive miscalculation.
If the same thing happens to Obama, between now and the election (I believe it will), he really will be slaughtered.
But … we shall see.
LATER: Mitt Romney in a landslide.
So I read this blog posting and wondered if the super dramatic picture of a heron taking flight from a telegraph pole is a 6000 picture, of if he just stole it from somewhere. So I looked in his flickr collection (which I recommend a good browse through), and there it was. Which made sense, because there was no link to anywhere else.
The bird on the right is a sugarbird, which flies through the air, or so it would appear, not by flapping its wings, but simply by having a very long tail. Presumably its wing is pointing directly at us, and is consequently hard to make out.
WWWhat a great afternoon!!!
A photo taken of a taken photo of the photo being taken
The politics of humour in the USA and in Britain
Out to lunch with Alex Singleton
BrianMicklethwaitDotCom twitter of the day before the day before yesterday
Everyone who shows this picture needs to add that it is not Photoshopped
One man’s intellectual theft is another man’s marketing
The US Navy photos itself
Why David Hepworth is wrong about podcasting
Does Google now rule the world of computing?
Antoine Clarke on the Massachusetts election and the online effect
Graeme Swann - twitterer but no twit
Antoine Clarke talks about Facebook and Twitter – Guido and … Ian Geldard?
Tienanmen + Twitter = Teheran
Daniel Hannan and the shape of the media to come
It all depends on whether there is anything worth Twittering
Google and dongle
Floppy road bridge where the cars nearly get wet
PID strikes Guido
Flickring and Googling for the AMGEN bridge
Billion Monkey lady ticks four (make that five) boxes!
The moving bridges of Chicago
Flat viaduct and spiral bridge
Blogging – the end of the beginning
Democracy for sale – starting with football and beer
Facebook – not so social
Billion Monkey lady does … “Heinrich Photography”?
Socialising with the Social Media
Breaking the Left’s stranglehold on the moving image
Che Guevara was a murderer and your T-Shirt is not cool
New Moscow road bridge
The future of music
Other people’s photos (4): Kitten on man’s head
Blogging has arrived
Other people’s photos (3): Ice storm
What next for the virtuoso violinists? - Simon Hewitt Jones has some answers
London photos by Fabio
Perry de Havilland on the thinking behind Samizdata
Adriana Media Influencer: What do you do? (the mp3s of the book)