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In which I continue to seek part time employment as the ruler of the world.

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Sunday February 04 2007

I am an atheist about God, but an agnostic about “climate change”, that is to say about potentially catastrophic climate change which is being caused by Man and must be stopped by Man.  (The climate always changes.  I know of nobody who doubts this.) I genuinely don’t know, and would genuinely like to.  All the stuff I hear is hearsay.  The only stuff that convinces me is when each side says of the other: They would say that wouldn’t they? People like Perry de Havilland object to “We Must Act Now” not because of the science, or not only because of the science, but because they don’t like what would then have to be done about it.  As don’t I.

But the truth has nothing to do with whether it is likable.  Sexually transmitted diseases are horrible.  They are also a reality.

Change of tack to another hobby horse of mine here, by way of further illustration: I think that Islam itself is a huge problem for the rest of the world, rather than merely “Islamic extremism”.  To put it another way, I think that Islam itself is “extreme”.  If this is true, it is a horrible truth, because it makes the “war on terror” about a thousand times more difficult than it would be otherwise, because what it says is that separating the “Islamic extremists” from the regular believers in Islam, in the usual counter-insurgency way, is going to be extremely difficult.  Islam itself will continue to crank out terrorists, indefinitely, until Islam itself is somehow changed in a big way.  Tough.  The truth doesn’t care what you think of it.  And if We really Must Act Now about “climate change”, then the fact that this will place the entire world under the thumb of disgusting environmentalist scum World Governors is just one of those things.  If that is the truth, then we will either ruled by Green Scum (as the late Chris R. Tame used to call them), or we will fry and die.  The truth doesn’t care what you think of it.

Interestingly, I heard a grizzled old greeny on the telly actually make this point about the ideological nature of the anti-We-Must-Act-Now-ers, a few nights ago.  I can’t recall his name, but in connection with this latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, he said that the objections to the We Must Act Now case were “ideologically driven” rather than “science driven”.  This was an interesting switch of tack.  Until recently, the WMAN-ers have dismissed anti-WMAN-ers, in my hearing anyway, as either corrupt or intimidated: either bought or bullied into submission by the big oil companies.  Now the WMAN-ers are, it would appear, realising that they are fighting at the very least an ideological battle rather than a mere PR (i.e. doomed) campaign.  Very wise of them.  They are.  But, their purpose in conceding that the anti-WMAN-ers mean what they say, is to argue that they mean what they say because they want to, rather than because the science justifies it.  The anti-WMAN-ers are “ideological” as in wrong.  And the WMAN-ers are also, a lot of them, very “ideological” indeed, in my opinion.

Meanwhile, I have been googling about the Medieval Warm Period, or “Anomaly” as the WMAN-ers call it, referred to in Perry de Havilland’s Samizdata piece.  (He also links to this press release.) The WMAN-ers apparently explain this as a local, north Atlantic phenomenon.  Which would suggest that this bit towards the end is quite important:

Adhikari and Kumon (2001) in investigating sediments in Lake Nakatsuna in central Japan have verified there the existence of both the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

Because it would suggest that the Medieval Warm Period/Anomaly was not quite so local after all.

But what do I know?  I merely mention this in order to poke the nest with a stick, as it were.  I hope for comments, that is to say.

Talking of which, thanks for all the recent comments here.  Much appreciated.  But, I realise that comments on new subjects here take their time to accumulate.  You have to prove that you are genuinely interested in a subject before people bother to correct you on the subject, or for that matter for interested parties even to learn that you are interested.

One thing though.  Comments merely repeating that the WMAN-ers are indeed ideologically driven, wrong, and scum, will be superfluous to requirements here, i.e. to my requirements.  I already know that a lot of WMAN-ers are ideologically driven, and that a lot of the anti-WMAN-ers think that they are all ideologically driven, and accordingly also all wrong, and all scum.  No need to tell me this again.  By all means agree about such insults along these lines amongst yourselves, but count me out.  Unless you can back them up with some science, cogent thoughts about the science, links to science etc.  Then you will have my attention.

Brian, you have to read these series by a genuine scientist (by genuine I mean he has a mind of a true scientist: curiosity and fact-checking, not only necessary credentials).
There is a bit of finger-pointing there, for sure, but only after thorough analysis.

Posted by Tat on 04 February 2007

I read this in the early 90’s:

http://www.amazon.com/Trashing-Planet-Science-Depletion-Nuclear/dp/0060974907

I don’t think the environmentalists have answered a single issue found in this book.
The green movement simply keeps repeating the same things, even when their predictions are wildly wrong.

Shouldn’t any true environmentalist be for less government?  The Soviets and the Chinese are two great examples of massive government polluting like crazy.  I am sure there are more.
So, why do all the “green” solutions involve more government?

Posted by August on 04 February 2007

The “green” solutions don’t all involve more government.

To a large extent, the greens’ statism results from their mistakenly taking at face value the neoliberal misappropriation of the term “free market.” They look at the statist system of corporate power that neoliberals defend in terms of “free market” principles, and react, quite rightly, by saying:  “If that’s a free market, then I’m against it.”

The solution is to show them how much present-day evils result from subsidized waste and resource consumption, and how far this corporate-government collusion differs from genuine free market principles. 

There’s potentially a great deal of overlap between libertarians and greens on the subject of externalities presently created by state intervention.  And some geolibertarian proposals, like auctioning off carbon emission permits and then letting the market price system take care of the problem, are at the very least less statist than the present regulatory environmentalist regime.

Posted by Kevin Carson on 05 February 2007

Knowledge about the “mediaeval Warm Period” and also of the “Little Ice Age” predates this climate-change debate by decades.

Everyone should read Professor John Gribbin’s book “The Strangest Star”, published about 1978, and regarding The Sun. this book is currently regarded as very “Politically incorrect”, as it contains facts and models of the Sun’s internal physics. It goes into quite considerable detail about how inconstant the output of the Sun actually is, and on what timescales it varies its activity.

A difference for example, of 0.1E26 watts ( = 10 trillion-trillion watts or 10-billion-trillion Kw) in its output (whiah has been averaging around 4E26 watts for the last 100,000 years but perhaps is slowly rising on a longer timescale) would cause large global temperature differences, within which the earth’s entire ice-caps are just a small and ephemeral detail.

If you go to

http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

then you will see how the UN-IGPCC used particularly chosen strands of data, in such a way as to NOT QUITE exactly produce an evilly-false conclusion with clear malice-aforethought, but to be able (statistically-and-mathematically-massaging) to “disappear” the warm-period and also the little-ice-age.

Furthermore, all those of us who create computer-models of anything whatsoever, know that you can make the model tell other people (who have no time at all, and so that is why they are “other people” and why YOU make the models!) anything you want it to say. The classic line in in “Superman 2”, where the baddie (I forget which one) asks the geek what the computer will do about half-cents on invoices, and the geek replies - “whatever you tell me to tell it to do....”

10-billlion-trillion Kw (the half-cent bits on this equation) over a year, is one trillion times the capacity of the entire UK electricity industry’s genertaion power in 1980 - never mind what it does today! And they say that “we” here are “responsible” for 2% (yes, 2%) of “global carnob emissions? (I have decided I like “carnob” and will refer to that element thus forthwith.) A denominator-factor into 1E22 still gives 2E20, or 200 million trillion - THAT therefore is the factor-multiplier-numerator by which THE SUN OUTDOES MAN, just in its FLUCTUATIONS.

I don’t even think the entire earth’s crust contains as much Carnob as will be radiated as ions, in an average prominence, in an average solar atmospheric disturbance, tomorrow.

Posted by David Davis on 06 February 2007
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